Voting Is Officially Underway
The Academy’s final voting opened this morning and runs for a week. Eleven thousand-plus voters are now clicking away, and this year’s ballot looks a little different — which means the drama continues up until the envelopes are opened.
What’s New on the Ballot
First off: there’s a brand-new category for casting, bringing the total to 24 awards. Folks outside casting say they could use clearer rules on what exactly to reward — the whole ensemble, stunning discoveries, daring hires, or some mix of all three.
Also new: every category now lists the actual people eligible for the award, not just the film title. That change can shine a spotlight on familiar names who’ve long been Oscar bridesmaids and might nudge voters toward them.
Finally, voters are asked to confirm they’ve seen every nominee in a category before voting — by checking a box on the Academy’s streaming screening room if they watched a film elsewhere. It’s a tiny gate, but don’t pretend it’ll stop every partial-watcher from clicking their favorites.
Campaigning: Galleries, Cocktails and Palm-Size Nudges
Studios and camps are working overtime. Case in point: Netflix turned a West Hollywood space into a two-day gallery of stills for Train Dreams to highlight its cinematographer — complete with cocktail hour attended by Academy members. It’s the kind of targeted rubbing-shoulders that might not change the world, but hey, it can’t hurt.
Awards Warm-Up Recap: Spirits and BAFTAs
The indie-leaning Spirit Awards boosted Train Dreams and a few other titles, and then BAFTA weekend hit — which had its own unpleasant moment during a presentation. Beyond the headline mishap, the Brits rewarded One Battle After Another heavily, handing it multiple wins including film, director and supporting actor.
But BAFTA results didn’t settle the acting races. Surprise winners and non-Oscar-eligible victors muddied the waters, leaving plenty of room for last-minute swings in the Oscar races.
Locked-In Favorites vs. Truly Open Contests
Some categories look relatively set: director for Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), lead actress for Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), and original song for KPop Demon Hunters’ “Golden.”
But most slots are still anyone’s game — best picture, many acting races, international feature, documentary feature and tons of crafts remain up for grabs. Expect jockeying and small moves right to the finish.
What’s Next on the Awards Calendar
Look for the Producers Guild Awards and the Actor (SAG) Awards this weekend. The PGA matters because it uses a preferential ballot similar to the Oscars, while SAG can still offer clues — though this year its nominations missed non-English performances that the Academy did include.
How This Forecast Works
Quick caveat: these predictions aren’t personal wish lists. The aim is to guess how Academy members will vote — based on screenings, campaign activity, conversations with voters and historical patterns.
Feinberg’s Updated Picks — Category by Category
Best Picture
Forecast (1–10): 1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler & team; 2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson & producers; 3. Hamnet (Focus) — producers include Sam Mendes and Steven Spielberg; 4. Sentimental Value (Neon); 5. Marty Supreme (A24); 6. Train Dreams (Netflix); 7. Frankenstein (Netflix); 8. The Secret Agent (Neon); 9. Bugonia (Focus); 10. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.).
Best Director
Forecast: 1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another); 2. Ryan Coogler (Sinners); 3. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet); 4. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value); 5. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme).
Best Actor
Forecast: 1. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme); 2. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent); 3. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners); 4. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another); 5. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon).
Best Actress
Forecast: 1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet); 2. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue); 3. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You); 4. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value); 5. Emma Stone (Bugonia).
Best Supporting Actor
Forecast: 1. Delroy Lindo (Sinners); 2. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another); 3. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value); 4. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein); 5. Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another).
Best Supporting Actress
Forecast: 1. Amy Madigan (Weapons); 2. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another); 3. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners); 4. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value); 5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Forecast: 1. One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson); 2. Hamnet (Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao); 3. Train Dreams (Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar); 4. Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro); 5. Bugonia (Will Tracy).
Best Original Screenplay
Forecast: 1. Sinners (Ryan Coogler); 2. Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt); 3. Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie); 4. It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi); 5. Blue Moon (Robert Kaplow).
Best International Feature
Forecast: 1. Norway — Sentimental Value; 2. Brazil — The Secret Agent; 3. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab; 4. France — It Was Just an Accident; 5. Spain — Sirāt.
Best Documentary Feature
Forecast: 1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix); 2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin; 3. The Alabama Solution (HBO); 4. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple); 5. Cutting Through Rocks.
Best Animated Feature
Forecast: 1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); 2. Zootopia 2 (Disney); 3. Arco (Neon); 4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS); 5. Elio (Disney/Pixar).
Best Casting
Forecast: 1. Sinners; 2. One Battle After Another; 3. Marty Supreme; 4. Hamnet; 5. The Secret Agent.
Best Cinematography
Forecast: 1. Train Dreams (Adolpho Veloso); 2. One Battle After Another; 3. Sinners; 4. Frankenstein; 5. Marty Supreme.
Best Costume Design
Forecast: 1. Frankenstein; 2. Sinners; 3. Hamnet; 4. Marty Supreme; 5. Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Best Film Editing
Forecast: 1. F1; 2. One Battle After Another; 3. Sinners; 4. Marty Supreme; 5. Sentimental Value.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Forecast: 1. Frankenstein; 2. Sinners; 3. The Smashing Machine; 4. Kokuho; 5. The Ugly Stepsister.
Best Original Score
Forecast: 1. Sinners (Ludwig Göransson); 2. One Battle After Another (Johnny Greenwood); 3. Frankenstein (Alexandre Desplat); 4. Hamnet (Max Richter); 5. Bugonia.
Best Original Song
Forecast: 1. “Golden” — KPop Demon Hunters; 2. “I Lied to You” — Sinners; 3. Diane Warren’s song from Diane Warren: Relentless; 4. “Train Dreams”; 5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!.
Best Production Design
Forecast: 1. Frankenstein; 2. Sinners; 3. Marty Supreme; 4. Hamnet; 5. One Battle After Another.
Best Sound
Nominees forecast: F1; Sinners; Frankenstein; One Battle After Another; Sirāt.
Best Visual Effects
Forecast: 1. Avatar: Fire and Ash; 2. Sinners; 3. F1; 4. Jurassic World Rebirth; 5. The Lost Bus.
Best Animated Short
Forecast: 1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls; 2. Forevergreen; 3. The Three Sisters; 4. Butterfly; 5. Retirement Plan.
Best Documentary Short
Forecast: 1. All the Empty Rooms; 2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud; 3. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”; 4. The Devil Is Busy; 5. Perfectly a Strangeness.
Best Live Action Short
Forecast: 1. Butcher’s Stain; 2. The Singers; 3. Two People Exchanging Saliva; 4. A Friend of Dorothy; 5. Jane Austen’s Period Drama.
Final Thought
Lots can still shift in the next few days. Expect small surges, last-minute campaigning and a few surprises — and then we’ll see whether this forecast ages well or looks adorable in retrospect. Stay tuned.